Notebook LM review of the recently publised Libya's Renewable Energy Program 2025 - 2040

I asked Notebook LM to review and check the recently published document for any inconsistencies, issues, or information gaps, and here is what it came back with:

The sources provide extensive detail regarding the context, methodology, and challenges encountered during the preparation of the "National Program for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (2025–2040)," which allows for a comprehensive assessment of the issues, inconsistencies, and missing information.

Issues, Inconsistencies, and Missing Information in the Document

The sources reveal several critical issues, technical inconsistencies, and information gaps related to the energy sector's current status and the structure of the proposed program:

1. Fundamental Sectoral Issues and Challenges

The program was initiated in response to numerous severe national challenges facing the energy sector:

• Excessive Reliance on Fossil Fuels The electricity generation system relies almost entirely on fossil fuels, leading to high economic and environmental pressures.
• Infrastructure Decay and Inefficiency The national energy system suffers from infrastructural deterioration, high rates of technical and commercial loss, and weak efficiency in production, transmission, and distribution. Some reports indicate that losses in distribution networks exceed 30% in certain areas.
• Political Instability Conflicts and a lack of political stability have negatively impacted the energy system since 2014, leading to frequent power outages and low network reliability.
• Subsidy System The continued existence of an undirected subsidy system for electricity and fuel prices is identified as a major obstacle, distorting prices, offering no incentive for companies or consumers to invest in efficiency, and generally impeding sectoral reform.
• Financial and Institutional Gaps Institutions generally lack specialized financial mechanisms, qualified staff, and dedicated training centers for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE).

2. Technical and Data Inconsistencies

• Load Forecasting Discrepancy A significant inconsistency exists between the official maximum load forecasts and the actual recorded data. For instance, the 2023-2035 National Strategy projected a maximum load of 9.3 GW for 2023, whereas the actual recorded load was 8.234 GW. This large variance (about 1 GW) highlights the low accuracy of current load forecasting models and the need for more realistic models.
• Data Availability and Quality The technical teams faced challenges due to the absence of a centralized database for the energy sector, forcing them to gather data from multiple sources. This led to variations in data accuracy and instances where indicators lacked formal documentation.
• Unrealistic RE Penetration Targets Previous national strategies (2019-2030 and 2023-2035) often set ambitious penetration rate percentages (such as 10%, 17%, 19%, or 20%) that appeared high and were not supported by realistic technical feasibility analyses.

3. Grid Code (Technical/Regulatory Gaps)

The review of the Grid Code documents identified several specific regulatory and structural issues:

• Missing Legal/Institutional Structure The Grid Code document frequently references a separate Transmission System Operator (TSO) and an independent Regulatory Body (Regulator). However, the current institutional structure of the General Electricity Company (GECOL) does not include a TSO. This implies the Grid Code's full application is currently incompatible with GECOL's consolidated structure.
• Conflicting Authorities There is a contradiction between the clause defining the body authorized to update the Grid Code (7.4.1) and the clause outlining the duties of the Grid Code Supervisory Committee (2.8.5).
• Terminology Inconsistency There is a discrepancy between the voltage values used in the Grid Code to define transmission/distribution levels and the actual applied values used by GECOL.
• Missing Technical Requirements for RE The Grid Code lacks necessary technical requirements specifically for integrating variable RE sources, such as standardized protection against anti-islanding phenomena and explicit incorporation of Fault Ride-Through (FRT) requirements.
• Language Barrier Although the Grid Code was written in English (which prevails in case of conflict), the committee suggests that the organizational and legislative sections must be translated into Arabic to ensure clear interpretation and application.
• Missing Representation The proposed composition of the Grid Code Supervisory Committee did not include a representative from the Renewable Energies Authority.

Is it a proper government-issued document? Why?

Yes, the document appears to be a proper, formally commissioned government strategic planning document, but it is a program/strategy, not a binding law.

The sources strongly support its governmental authority and legitimacy based on the following facts:

1. High-Level Authority: The program, titled "البرنامج الوطني للطاقات المتجددة وكفاءة الطاقة (2025–2040)," was officially sponsored and overseen by the National Planning Council (NPC).
2. Formal Mandate: The program's creation was authorized by a specific governmental decree: Resolution No. (75) for 2024, issued by the President of the National Planning Council on May 22, 2024.
3. Role and Intention: The document is intended to serve as the "national reference" (مرجعًا وطنيًا) guiding public policies and executive plans. Furthermore, the importance of this work is highlighted by the NPC's role as an "advisory arm to the House of Representatives" (كذراع استشاري لمجلس النواب).
4. Inclusivity and Process: Its preparation adhered to a formal, structured methodology, involving a dedicated national committee. This committee included high-level representatives and experts from key government and state-affiliated institutions, such as the General Electricity Company, the National Oil Corporation, the Renewable Energies Authority, the House of Representatives, and various universities. The methodology involved extensive consultations (مشاورات واسعة) with the public and private sectors.

The fact that the document was created based on a formal resolution (No. 75 of 2024) and is published by the National Planning Council marks it as a crucial strategic document commissioned by the state, designed to establish the foundations for long-term planning.